The Changeover to the democracy in Iraq will become a “long, difficult and probably turbulent challenge”. The Iraqi political culture is missing the social corroboration for a democratic development. Their culture doesn’t understand any democratic society.

In addition a war in Iraq will increase political Islam and support of groups of Terror”. Tensions between Shiites, Sunnite and Kurds would encourage “groups of terror to use the volatile security situation in Iraq”.

Sounds familiar?

All US analysts already wrote this in January 2003 - two months before the US invasion in Iraq. The 229-sided report of the US senate submitted few days ago, what concerns itself with government prognoses for the war in Iraq, is essentially based on two documents, which circulated at that time on highest level in Washington.

The US National Secret Service had passed two analyses briefly to the White House, Senate and Pentagon, before the war started.

Weird Warning

The Senate report gives new chances people to critic the Bush’s Administration. The important part of those analyses is that Iran and Al Qaida improve this situation in Iraq to make a Hill for American.

The republican senator Christopher Boyd accused that the Democrats abuse the investigation party politics.  The warnings were “No Crystal Balls”.  “The report exaggerates the meaning of the estimates from the prewar time”, wrote Boyd as well as three further republican senators in a statement. It gave also different “authoritative opinions” at that time.

Likewise George W. Bush reacted. The government received many warnings at that time. Some occurred and others did not say the US president. He weighed the risks out and made his decision.

They were optimist they can rebuild Iraq quickly after invasion with Oil income but they were wrong and the rebuilding Iraq is pushed back for 20 years. They thought they can stop terror in a short time but it proved as wrong.

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